Osborne should lay out euro crisis stimulus plans - IFS

Chancellor George Osborne should publish broad stimulus plans for an emergency such as a break-up of the euro zone in next month's budget, the country's leading fiscal policy think-tank said on Wednesday.

The Institute for Fiscal Studies said that while austerity is needed in the coming years to fix public finances, the case for some short-term stimulus had strengthened as the economy has probably entered a mild recession.

But it acknowledged the large risks to even a temporary spending boost, saying any loss in market trust could cost Britain dearly as it has to issue 740 billion pounds to fund new borrowing and refinance maturing bonds over the next five years.

Britain's Chancellor of the Exchequer
George Osborne arrives at the
Treasury in London January 25, 2012.
REUTERS/Suzanne Plunkett

"Regardless of whether or not Mr. Osborne thinks that a substantial short-term fiscal stimulus is appropriate at the moment, he should set out now broadly what he would do under alternative scenarios where the economic outlook for the UK is sharply weaker - such as were the Eurozone to collapse" it said.

IFS programme director Gemma Tetlow said clarity now could avoid accusations of any U-turn later.

"It might be reassuring for businesses and individuals that, if something were to go wrong, the government would be prepared and in a position to do something in the short-term," she said.

The debate about the need for a short-term boost is already heating up ahead of the budget, due on March 21, as the economy contracted by 0.2 percent at the end of 2011.

Chancellor Osborne has blamed the euro zone debt crisis for Britain's meagre economic performance over the past few months. The government has said it is working on plans for all eventualities but has so far refused to give any details.

Osborne announced more spending cuts in November to meet his main target to erase the budget deficit within five years as the weak economic outlook drives up borrowing.

A Treasury spokesman said the IFS's report supported the government's deficit policy. "The IFS say that ... any fiscal stimulus big enough to make a difference would undermine investor confidence and so risk higher interest rates," he said.

Consultancy Oxford Economics, which provided the IFS with alternative growth scenarios, said if the euro zone breaks up, Britain's economy would slump by 1.7 percent this year and 0.9 percent in 2012. Its central view is for 0.3 percent growth this year and 1.9 percent next, lower than the government fiscal watchdog Office for Budget Responsibility's forecast of 0.7 percent growth in 2011 and 2.1 percent in 2013.

The IFS said under its main scenario - using the OBR's growth forecasts - the government's net borrowing was likely to be nearly 3 billion pounds lower in 2011/2012, and some 9 billion pounds lower in 2016/2017 than the OBR itself predicts.

©Reuters 2012

Eurosceptic anger at Cameron U-turn

David Cameron is facing a backlash from Tory eurosceptics after abandoning his opposition to the European Court of Justice being used to enforce a new fiscal compact for the eurozone.

The Prime Minister has previously insisted that European Union institutions could not be used for a new pact because Britain will not be a signatory.

After his dramatic use of the veto last month to block a new treaty, he said the European Commission and the European Court of Justice could only carry out policies applying to all 27 member states.

David Cameron said the UK would only
make any challenge to a new EU treaty
 if the country's interests were 'threatened'

However after a further EU summit in Brussels, Mr Cameron did not press his case against the use of the institutions and said Britain would only make any challenge if its interests were "threatened".

The Prime Minister said: "We don't want to hold up the eurozone doing what is necessary to solve the crisis as long as it doesn't damage our national interests, so it's good that the new treaty states clearly that it cannot encroach upon the competences of the Union and that they must not take measures that undermine the EU single market."

He added: "The key point here for me is what is in our national interest, which is for them to get on and sort out the mess that is the euro. That's in our national interest. We will be watching like a hawk and if there is any sign that they are going to encroach on the single market we will take the appropriate action, if I may put it that way.

"The principle that the EU institutions can only be used with the permission of 27 (member states) has not changed. In as much as this (new treaty) is about fiscal union, fine: if it encroaches on the single market, not fine."

Tory MPs who were jubilant after Mr Cameron wielded the veto voiced their fears ahead of the summit that the Prime Minister would allow EU institutions to be used to police the new pact. The matter is likely to be discussed at the 1922 Committee of Tory backbenchers on Tuesday. Mr Cameron will report back to the Commons on the latest summit.

Leader of Britain's Tory MEPs Martin Callanan said government policy on the fiscal compact had changed, partly because of a need to mollify Nick Clegg, the pro-Europe Deputy Prime Minister.

Mr Callanan said: "There is no doubt that the Government's position has altered since the December summit when they were insisting the institutions could not be used I blame a combination of appeasing Nick Clegg, who is desperate to sign anything the EU puts in front of him, and the practical reality that this pact is actually quite hard to prevent: the Government would have to ask the European Court of Justice to rule against itself having a role."

Fitch downgrades five eurozone economies

US ratings agency Fitch has said it is downgrading the credit ratings of five countries that use the euro, including economic heavyweights Italy and Spain.

Fitch rating agency has downgraded the
debt ratings of five eurozone states including Spain and Italy,
pointing to the growing vulnerability of their economies.

Fitch said the downgraded countries - also including Belgium, Cyprus and Slovenia - faced financial and economic headwinds from the eurozone's debt crisis that could diminish their ability to sustain their own debt loads.

The downgrade was largely expected as Fitch had said it was reviewing the country's ratings. It comes on top of a downgrade of nine eurozone countries by another ratings agency, Standard & Poor's, on January 13.

The downgrade was another setback to European leaders' efforts to contain a crisis over too much government debt in some euro member countries. Ireland, Greece and Portugal have been cut off from bond market borrowing by fears that they might default and have had to take bailout loans from other eurozone governments and the International Monetary Fund.

Fitch cited the European Union's (EU) slow-moving approach to fundamental reform of how the euro currency is set up, as well as the lack in the interim of a credible financial firewall with enough money to keep countries that suddenly have trouble borrowing from defaulting.

The agency lowered ratings for the five by one notch and placed a negative outlook on all of them. Italy went down to A- credit rating while Spain was downgraded to A. Additionally, a sixth country, Ireland, saw its BBB+ rating affirmed but it also received a negative outlook.

Italian Prime Minister Mario Monti has implemented
a number of measures to strengthen Italy's finances

Fitch Ratings blamed the revisions on "the marked deterioration in the economic outlook" in Europe and "the absence of a credible financial firewall against contagion and self-fulfilling liquidity crises".

It said that European leaders' "gradualist" approach to tackling the crisis meant that Europe will continue to face episodes of severe financial volatility that would erode governments' ability to repay debt.

It said those fears would be compounded by a shrinking economy, now that many economists expect at least a mild recession.

"The eurozone crisis will only be resolved as and when there is broad economic recovery," Fitch said. "It is evident that further substantial reforms of the governance of the eurozone will be required to secure economic and financial stability, including greater fiscal integration."

Copyright © 2012 The Press Association. All rights reserved.

EU and US economic leaders spar at Davos

EU and US economic leaders spar at Davos 

Key policy-makers from Europe and the United States thrashed out ideas for pulling the eurozone out of its debt crisis at the Davos forum on Friday, days ahead of a key European summit.

While cloistered in a snow-bound conference centre high in the Swiss Alps, the global political and business elite had one eye on Greece, hoping that a long-awaited deal to write down its debt might at last fall into place.

Greek Prime Minister Lucas Papademos is in talks with banks and insurers on a voluntary exchange of bonds that would wipe 100 billion euros ($130 billion) off the country's debt of 350 billion euros.

The deal under discussion would see private creditors take a "haircut" of at least 50 percent on 200 billion euros in debt. Previous talks stalled over the amount of interest to be paid on the remaining debt.

Any failure to strike a deal could trigger a messy default, which would be an economic disaster for Greece itself, a threat to banks holding too much sovereign debt and pile on the pressure on other eurozone state.

World markets and delegates in Davos have begun to show signs of cautious optimism that a deal is near, and that Monday's EU summit will draw a line under the debt crisis and allow governments to move on to pro-growth measures.

The finance ministers of Germany and France and the head of the European Central Bank were in Davos to debate strategy and defend the beleaguered single currency area after it was attacked by Britain's leader.

They will all then meet again on Monday in Brussels for the latest in a series of high stakes EU summits, the bloc's first since Standard & Poor's downgraded the credit rating of a slew of eurozone member states.

And US Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner was to debate the outlook for world economy after the Obama administration acknowledged that the eurozone slump is undermining American growth ahead of the November election.

The annual forum has been marked by gloom about the state of the global economy, and in particular about Europe's struggle to cope with yawning public deficits while at the same time seeking growth and jobs.

The euro has been under pressure -- amid fears that Greece or even eventually a giant like Spain or Italy could default on its debts -- and the 17-nation bloc's economy in on the brink of renewed recession.

A fortnight after France was stripped of its triple A credit rating, Finance Minister Francois Baroin will join his German counterpart Wolfgang Schaeuble in a debate entitled: "How will the eurozone emerge from the euro crisis?"

After the Friday the 13th downgrade by Standard and Poor's, Baroin said the development was "not a catastrophe" and insisted that the government rather than the ratings agencies would decide French policy.

But the Davos meeting has reverberated with calls for eurozone nations to act decisively to restore confidence, Canada's leader Stephen Harper said that Europe's capitals have been guilty of complacency.

British Prime Minister David Cameron also piled on the pressure, reviving his simmering feud with the rest of Europe on Thursday by savaging France and Germany's plans for a new financial transactions tax.

"Even to be considering this at a time when we are struggling to get our economies growing is quite simply madness," he declared.

The eurozone has caused alarm far beyond the continent and Mexican President Felipe Calderon used his speech Thursday to urge Europe to "bring out the bazooka immediately" to prevent the problem from sinking Italy and Spain.

"It is necessary to bring out the bazooka immediately, before the gunpowder gets wet," said Calderon, who holds the rotating chair of G20 world powers.

"Don't forget that we are in the same boat. It is not just a question of a possible implosion of the euro, but a crisis across the world."

Geithner's address comes a day after the Federal Reserve cut its US growth forecast to 2.2-2.7 percent, about one-quarter percentage point below the previous forecasts, citing the eurozone crisis.

"We continue to see headwinds coming from Europe," Fed chairman Ben Bernanke said at a news conference.

The third day of the Davos gathering also focused on events in the Middle East and North Africa, with an address from Hamadi Jebali, the post-revolution Islamist premier of Tunisia, and a debate on Iran's nuclear ambitions.

Jebali's appearance is designed to imbue a rare spirit of optimism but he will speak just as eyes will be turned towards the head of the UN's atomic watchdog as he discusses the implications of Iran acquiring a nuclear bomb.

International Atomic Energy Agency chief Yukiya Amano will be joined at the debate by Ehud Barak, the defence minister of Iran's arch foe Israel.

Copyright © 2012 AFP. All rights reserved.

PM: EU transaction tax plan madness

PM: EU transaction tax plan madness

David Cameron delivered a scathing assessment of Europe's failure to promote economic growth as he urged it to be "bold" to promote business.

The Prime Minister said it was no time for "tinkering" and described European Union plans for a financial transactions tax as "madness". In a speech to the World Economic Forum in Davos, he was strongly critical of what he said were anti-competitive Brussels regulations and the flawed framework for the euro.

"In Britain we are taking bold steps necessary to get our economy back on track, but my argument today is that the need for bold action at European level is equally great," he said. "Europe's lack of competitiveness remains its Achilles heel."

The annual gathering comes amid renewed gloom about the economy after the International Monetary Fund this week downgraded its forecasts for global growth. Britain is facing the prospect of a return to recession after the Office of National Statistics on Wednesday reported a 0.2% contraction in the UK economy in the final quarter of 2011.

Mr Cameron accused the EU, despite the economic challenge, of "doing things to make life even harder". He attacked the "unnecessary " regulations on business that "can destroy jobs" and said the proposed financial transactions tax could cost hundreds of thousands of jobs.

David Cameron described EU plans for a
financial transactions tax as 'madness

"Even to be considering this at a time when we are struggling to get our economies growing is quite simply madness," he said.

The Prime Minister suggested the eurozone had none of the features common to successful currency unions like the US dollar and British sterling.

In a message to his European counterparts, Mr Cameron went on: "This is a time to show the leadership our people are demanding. Tinkering here and there and hoping we'll drift to a solution simply won't cut it any more. This is a time for boldness, not caution. Boldness in what we do nationally - and together as a continent."

But he sought to reassure his European counterparts that, despite vetoing a new EU treaty to deal with the eurozone crisis in December, he wanted Britain to remain within the EU - contrary to the demands of some Tory backbenchers.

He said: "To those who think that not signing the treaty means Britain is somehow walking away from Europe let me tell you, nothing could be further from the truth. Britain is part of the European Union. Not by default but by choice. It fundamentally reflects our national interest to be part of the single market on our doorstep and we have no intention of walking away."

©YahooNews 2012

IMF Warns Debt-Crisis Inaction May Mean Steep EU Recession

IMF Warns Debt-Crisis Inaction 

May Mean Steep EU Recession.

The global economy is slowing this year, the International Monetary Fund said Tuesday, cutting its forecasts for growth and warning of a deeper downturn if Europe doesn't take stronger action to stem its debt crisis.

The global economy will expand 3.3%, this year, down from 3.8% last year, said the IMF, which in September had forecast 4% growth in 2012.

Europe is likely to experience at least a mild recession this year, but the outcome could be far worse if euro-zone leaders fail to halt the rise of state borrowing costs and growing squeeze on bank credit, the world's emergency lender said in an update of its World Economic Outlook. Inaction could cause the euro-zone economy to shrink by 4% on average in each of the next two years, and lop two percentage points off global output this year, the fund said.

The World Recovery is in danger of stalling - IMF Chief Economist Oliver Blanchard

"The world recovery, which was weak in the first place, is in danger of stalling," IMF chief economist Olivier Blanchard said. "But there is an even greater danger, namely that the European crisis intensifies. In this case, the world could be plunged into another recession," he said.

Funding costs for some of the region's biggest economies are hitting levels not seen since the launch of the European Economic and Monetary Union. Combined with thinning credit in financial markets and governments tightening their fiscal belts, Europe is likely to face at the very least a mild recession this year.

If Europe quickly follows IMF recommendations, the fund expects the euro area to face a 0.5% contraction this year. The fund shaved off 1.6 percentage points from its last forecast for 2012 in September--reflecting its worst-case scenario--after risks escalated sharply in the last quarter of the year, when the debt crisis "entered a perilous new phase." Under its optimistic scenario, the IMF expects growth to return to the region next year.

IMF warn that debt inaction may
result in a steep recession in the EU

Economists increasingly expect Greece to default within weeks. Even more worryingly, the markets are now targeting Spain and Italy, pushing up the cost for Rome and Madrid to borrow to cover the risk of default. The IMF slashed its 2012 forecasts for both countries, saying Italy faces a 2.2% contraction and Spain, a 1.7% fall. Both are expected to continue to be in recession through 2013.

The IMF praised the efforts of many euro-zone members to reduce their massive debt burdens and bloated budgets, but it warned against further near-term cuts that could worsen their economic woes.

"Given the large adjustment already in train this year, governments should avoid responding to any unexpected downturn in growth by further tightening policies," IMF staff said.

Advanced economies, including the U.S., Japan, the U.K and the euro zone, are expected to expand by only 1.5% on average through 2013, a growth rate too sluggish to make a major dent in high unemployment levels.

Growth in emerging and developing economies has slowed as European banks spend less abroad and euro-area demand contracts. The IMF forecasts those countries will expand as a bloc by 5.4% this year and 5.9% next year, shaving more than half a percentage point off their growth estimates. The fund lowered China's growth by nearly a percentage point to 8.2% for the year, down from a previous forecast of 9%.

But major emerging economies face a risk of a major shock to growth. Should real estate and credit markets unwind, "the impact on economic activity could be very damaging," the IMF said.

Overall, the IMF sees global growth slowing but not collapsing, and many advanced economies avoiding a second recession.

The European Stability Fund

"However, this is predicated on the assumption that in the euro area, policy makers intensify efforts to address the crisis," the IMF said.

The IMF wants the euro zone to double the size of its emergency bailout fund, called the European Financial Stability Fund, which it said Tuesday wasn't big enough to address any new major debt emergency. 


The fund said that financing for the bailout fund is in question following its rating downgrade and the higher cost of financing it.

It is also urging the Group of 20 industrial and developing countries to boost the IMF's lending resources to more than $1 trillion. 


That way, Europe could use its bailout fund to help boost banks' cash levels and keep its euro-zone financing costs down while the IMF helps bail out ailing economies. The fund also wants the European Central Bank to continue its bond-buying program, maintain ample credit in the financial system and ease policy interest rates.

However, there are major political hurdles for Europe to follow through on the IMF's recommendations. In particular, Germany has so far resisted bulking up the bailout fund beyond what has already been promised and the ECB has publicly rejected a bailout role.

The IMF also reiterated its concerns that the U.S. and Japan hadn't made enough progress developing a medium-term plan to slim their budgets and pay down massive debt overhangs. In the absence of action, "there is the possibility of turmoil in global bond and currency markets," it said.

-By Ian Talley, Dow Jones Newswires
Edited by PoliticsUK